🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Cittadella edge out Palermo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cittadella beat Palermo 2-1 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.00 xG and Palermo 0.95 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cittadella beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Palermo attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cittadella 33% | Draw 36% | Palermo 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cittadella win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 44%, Palermo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cittadella's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Palermo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.18 PPG, Palermo 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights