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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Cittadella take on Juve Stabia.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Cittadella welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Cittadella — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Cittadella have gone 0W 8D 2L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Serie B games this season, Juve Stabia have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 4D 1L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Cittadella) versus 1.00 (Juve Stabia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Trading Patterns

Cittadella in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 36% versus Juve Stabia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 36% | Juve Stabia 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 0.75 xG and Juve Stabia 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.643 / defence 0.930 | Juve Stabia attack 0.810 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.055. Cittadella's attack strength of 0.643 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Cittadella games / 14 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cittadella 28% | Draw 41% | Juve Stabia 31%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 3.57 | Draw 2.44 | Juve Stabia 3.23. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Cittadella's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.54 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cittadella 50% | Juve Stabia 43%.

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