Cittadella 2-2 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Cittadella take on Juve Stabia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Cittadella welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cittadella — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Cittadella have gone 0W 8D 2L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Juve Stabia have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 4D 1L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Cittadella) versus 1.00 (Juve Stabia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Cittadella in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 36% versus Juve Stabia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 36% | Juve Stabia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 0.75 xG and Juve Stabia 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.643 / defence 0.930 | Juve Stabia attack 0.810 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.055. Cittadella's attack strength of 0.643 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Cittadella games / 14 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 28% | Draw 41% | Juve Stabia 31%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 3.57 | Draw 2.44 | Juve Stabia 3.23. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Cittadella's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.54 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cittadella 50% | Juve Stabia 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 28% | Draw 41% | Juve Stabia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 32% | xG Cittadella 0.75 / Juve Stabia 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.643 / def 0.930 | Juve Stabia attack 0.810 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Juve Stabia xG
32%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Cittadella vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Juve Stabia?
Cittadella 2 - 2 Juve Stabia.
Where is Cittadella vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Juve Stabia part of?
Cittadella vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 28% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 31% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Cittadella and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cittadella and Juve Stabia in?
Cittadella (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cittadella's attack at 0.64x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.57
41%
2.42
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Cittadella xG
Total xG
1.54
0.80
Juve Stabia xG
3.57
28%
Home win
2.42
41%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.17
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
15%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.4 | 17.0 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.0%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Cittadella and 0.80 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 1.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cittadella come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 4D 7L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cittadella on 0.93 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cittadella's home form reads 0W 4D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Juve Stabia have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (1W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cittadella are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 0.93 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Juve Stabia in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Juve Stabia away?
Juve Stabia's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 0.67 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cittadella and Juve Stabia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cittadella
1
Draws
0
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Juve Stabia 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Juve Stabia?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Juve Stabia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Cittadella 33% BTTS, Juve Stabia 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Cittadella and 33% for Juve Stabia.
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 50%; Cittadella have failed to score in 67% of games; Juve Stabia in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cittadella's recent matches and 33% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Cittadella's recent games and 33% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Cittadella and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 15, as Cittadella and Juve Stabia drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 0.75 xG and Juve Stabia 0.80 xG, a combined 1.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cittadella beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juve Stabia outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.64 / defence 0.93 against Juve Stabia attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 28% | Draw 41% | Juve Stabia 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 36%, Juve Stabia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 0.93 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cittadella (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.