🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Cremonese (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cittadella face Cremonese.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato plays host to Cittadella versus Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Cittadella (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cittadella have posted 0W 8D 2L at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Cremonese have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cremonese are 0.80 PPG clear of Cittadella in recent Serie B fixtures (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 4 meetings, Cremonese have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Cittadella's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Cremonese winning.

It is worth noting that Cremonese have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 50% versus Cremonese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 43% | Cremonese 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 0.86 xG and Cremonese 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.718 / defence 1.010 | Cremonese attack 1.320 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.096. Cittadella's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cremonese have an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Cittadella games / 54 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cittadella 20% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 49%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 5.00 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 2.04. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cittadella 50% | Cremonese 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights