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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cittadella cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cittadella beat Bari 3-1 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 0.87 xG and Bari 1.23 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cittadella beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.66 / defence 1.22 against Bari attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cittadella 24% | Draw 32% | Bari 43%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Cittadella win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 42%, Bari 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cittadella's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Bari's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.12 PPG, Bari 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights