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Dominant Venezia run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Cesena.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Cesena 0-4 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.26 xG and Venezia 1.55 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Cesena fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Venezia outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Venezia attack 1.46 / defence 1.02, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 31% | Draw 26% | Venezia 43%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 44%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (62 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Venezia's trading profile (62 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cesena 1.40 PPG, Venezia 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights