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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cesena and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 33, as Cesena and Sudtirol drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.37 xG and Sudtirol 1.53 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.04 / defence 1.31 against Sudtirol attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 33% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 40%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 47%, Sudtirol 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Sudtirol's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cesena 1.33 PPG, Sudtirol 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights