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Cesena cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pescara.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cesena beat Pescara 2-0 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 2.01 xG and Pescara 1.12 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pescara landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Pescara attack 0.97 / defence 1.61, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 57% | Draw 23% | Pescara 20%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 54%, Pescara 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Pescara's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Cesena arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Cesena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Pescara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights