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Prediction vindicated as Cesena edge out Modena 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cesena beat Modena 1-0 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.19 xG and Modena 1.12 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Modena landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.06 / defence 0.97 against Modena attack 1.07 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 35% | Draw 34% | Modena 31%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 43%, Modena 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (51 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Modena's trading profile (51 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cesena 1.43 PPG, Modena 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cesena win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights