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Cesena and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cesena and Juve Stabia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 2.00 xG and Juve Stabia 0.89 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cesena fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.16 / defence 0.99 against Juve Stabia attack 0.85 / defence 1.29, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 62% | Draw 23% | Juve Stabia 15%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 44%, Juve Stabia 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cesena 1.51 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights