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Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Cesena 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Cesena 1-2 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.29 xG and Juve Stabia 0.81 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.90 / defence 0.91 against Juve Stabia attack 0.80 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 46% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 22%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Juve Stabia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 40%, Juve Stabia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cesena 1.40 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights