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Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Cesena 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli beat Cesena 0-1 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.61 xG and Empoli 0.90 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cesena fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against Empoli attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 53% | Draw 27% | Empoli 20%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Empoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 41%, Empoli 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (56 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Empoli's trading profile (56 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Cesena arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights