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Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Cesena 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Cesena 0-1 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.32 xG and Cremonese 1.59 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cesena fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.22 / defence 1.23 against Cremonese attack 1.23 / defence 0.88, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cesena 30% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 42%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 50%, Cremonese 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cesena's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Cremonese's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cesena 1.39 PPG, Cremonese 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights