Cesena vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cesena at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cesena vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Dino Manuzzi to face Cesena in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cesena (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cesena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Carrarese have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Cesena, 1 for Carrarese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cesena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 64% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 52% | Carrarese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.37 xG and Carrarese 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.936 / defence 1.046 | Carrarese attack 0.933 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.209. Data: 41 Cesena games / 41 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 41% | Draw 27% | Carrarese 32%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Carrarese 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cesena are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cesena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cesena 90% | Carrarese 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 41% | Draw 27% | Carrarese 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Cesena 1.37 / Carrarese 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.936 / def 1.046 | Carrarese attack 0.933 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Cesena (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Carrarese xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Carrarese kick off?
Cesena vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
Where is Cesena vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Carrarese part of?
Cesena vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 41% chance of winning, Carrarese a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cesena and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Carrarese?
Record (4 meetings): Cesena 2W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Cesena and Carrarese in?
Cesena (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Carrarese (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cesena's attack at 0.94x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.93x) against Cesena's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.76
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.55
1.18
Carrarese xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cesena and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Cesena and 1.18 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cesena come into this having played 42 games, going 13W 13D 16L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Cesena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 1.07 PPG from 42 outings (10W 15D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Cesena against 1.07 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cesena's home form reads 6W 8D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Carrarese have taken 0.76 points per game from 21 outings (3W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cesena are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.17 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 13W 13D 16L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 10W 15D 17L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Carrarese away?
Cesena's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.24 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cesena have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cesena
1
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Cesena have won 2, Carrarese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Carrarese 0-0 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Carrarese?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Cesena, 62% for Carrarese — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Cesena) and 52% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Cesena's games and 62% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cesena vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Cesena's recent games and 52% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Carrarese tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.