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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Catanzaro edge out Virtus Entella 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Catanzaro beat Virtus Entella 3-2 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Catanzaro 1.74 xG and Virtus Entella 0.72 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Catanzaro beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Virtus Entella outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Catanzaro attack 1.04 / defence 1.20 against Virtus Entella attack 0.57 / defence 1.26, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Catanzaro 61% | Draw 26% | Virtus Entella 14%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Catanzaro 46%, Virtus Entella 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Catanzaro's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Virtus Entella's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Catanzaro 1.23 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Catanzaro win broke the near-deadlock. Catanzaro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights