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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Catanzaro and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Regular Season - 37, as Catanzaro and Sampdoria drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Catanzaro 1.81 xG and Sampdoria 1.17 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sampdoria outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Catanzaro attack 1.19 / defence 1.13 against Sampdoria attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Catanzaro 51% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 24%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Catanzaro 54%, Sampdoria 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Catanzaro's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Catanzaro 1.46 PPG, Sampdoria 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights