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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Catanzaro and Reggiana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Catanzaro and Reggiana finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Catanzaro 1.46 xG and Reggiana 0.86 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Catanzaro attack 1.10 / defence 0.90 against Reggiana attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Catanzaro 49% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 21%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Catanzaro 51%, Reggiana 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Catanzaro's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Reggiana's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Catanzaro 1.52 PPG, Reggiana 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights