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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Catanzaro and Pescara share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Regular Season - 13, as Catanzaro and Pescara drew 3-3 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Catanzaro 2.10 xG and Pescara 0.84 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Catanzaro beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pescara outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Catanzaro attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Pescara attack 0.78 / defence 1.64, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Catanzaro 64% | Draw 24% | Pescara 12%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Catanzaro 42%, Pescara 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Catanzaro's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Pescara's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Catanzaro arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Catanzaro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights