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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Catanzaro defy the odds to beat Palermo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Catanzaro beat Palermo 1-0 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Catanzaro 1.08 xG and Palermo 1.39 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palermo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Catanzaro attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against Palermo attack 1.13 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Catanzaro 25% | Draw 34% | Palermo 40%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Catanzaro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Catanzaro 47%, Palermo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Catanzaro's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Palermo's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Catanzaro 1.28 PPG, Palermo 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Catanzaro win broke the near-deadlock. Catanzaro (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights