🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Catanzaro and Modena share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Catanzaro and Modena finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Catanzaro 1.41 xG and Modena 1.05 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Modena outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Catanzaro attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Modena attack 0.99 / defence 0.92, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Catanzaro 43% | Draw 31% | Modena 26%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Catanzaro 51%, Modena 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Catanzaro's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Modena's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Catanzaro 1.52 PPG, Modena 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Catanzaro (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights