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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Catanzaro and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Regular Season - 5, as Catanzaro and Juve Stabia drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Catanzaro 1.27 xG and Juve Stabia 1.29 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Catanzaro attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Juve Stabia attack 1.14 / defence 0.97, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Catanzaro 32% | Draw 34% | Juve Stabia 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Catanzaro 44%, Juve Stabia 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Catanzaro's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Catanzaro 1.33 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Catanzaro (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights