Catanzaro vs Brescia – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Catanzaro's attack at 1.09x the league average against Brescia's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Catanzaro's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Catanzaro Win
42%
2.37
34%
2.93
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Catanzaro xG
Total xG
2.11
0.88
Brescia xG
2.37
42%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
7%
14.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Catanzaro vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Catanzaro and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Catanzaro and 0.88 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Catanzaro vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.