Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Carrarese welcome Vicenza Virtus to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Carrarese) versus 0.90 (Vicenza Virtus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Vicenza Virtus in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Carrarese 50% and Vicenza Virtus 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Carrarese 50% | Vicenza Virtus 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.56 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.941 / defence 0.959 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.989 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Carrarese games / 10 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 45% | Draw 29% | Vicenza Virtus 27%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Vicenza Virtus 3.70. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 50% | Vicenza Virtus 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 45% | Draw 29% | Vicenza Virtus 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Carrarese 1.56 / Vicenza Virtus 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.941 / def 0.959 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.989 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Vicenza Virtus xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadio dei Marmi.
Where is Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 45% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus in?
Carrarese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (0.94) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.49
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.73
1.17
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.17 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Carrarese have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 6L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.00 PPG, Vicenza Virtus on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Carrarese have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.30 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Carrarese's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.20 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Carrarese at 60%, Vicenza Virtus at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Carrarese and 80% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Carrarese have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Carrarese's games and 80% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Carrarese's matches and 80% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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