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Carrarese cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Spezia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Spezia 3-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.54 xG and Spezia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Spezia attack 0.91 / defence 1.20, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 51% | Draw 29% | Spezia 20%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 46%, Spezia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Spezia's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.20 PPG, Spezia 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights