Carrarese vs Sampdoria – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carrarese host Sampdoria at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Sampdoria have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Carrarese at 0.80 PPG versus Sampdoria's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Carrarese, 1 for Sampdoria and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Carrarese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (44 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (44 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 48% versus Sampdoria 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 48% | Sampdoria 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.53 xG and Sampdoria 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.870 / defence 0.951 | Sampdoria attack 0.805 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Carrarese games / 44 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 49% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 23%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Sampdoria 4.35. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Carrarese 50% | Sampdoria 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 49% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Carrarese 1.53 / Sampdoria 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.870 / def 0.951 | Sampdoria attack 0.805 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sampdoria xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Sampdoria kick off?
Carrarese vs Sampdoria is scheduled to kick off at 16:15 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi.
Where is Carrarese vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Sampdoria part of?
Carrarese vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 49% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Carrarese and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Sampdoria?
Record (4 meetings): Carrarese 2W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Sampdoria in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.87x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.57
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.50
0.97
Sampdoria xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
5%
20.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.97 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Carrarese have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 11W 15D 18L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sampdoria's form line: 12W 12D 20L from 44 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.09 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Carrarese have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 2W 7D 14L from 23 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Carrarese are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.93 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 11W 15D 18L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Sampdoria away?
Carrarese's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.39 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Carrarese and Sampdoria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Carrarese's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Carrarese
1
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 2, Sampdoria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Carrarese 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Sampdoria?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 35%, Sampdoria 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Carrarese) and 44% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 48% of games; Sampdoria in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Carrarese's recent matches and 61% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Carrarese's recent games and 44% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.