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Prediction vindicated as Carrarese edge out Sampdoria 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Sampdoria 1-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.57 xG and Sampdoria 1.37 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.99 / defence 1.18 against Sampdoria attack 0.99 / defence 1.24, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 41% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 32%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 46%, Sampdoria 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sampdoria's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.15 PPG, Sampdoria 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights