Carrarese vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Carrarese at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carrarese vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pisa make the trip to Stadio dei Marmi to face Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Carrarese (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pisa have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Carrarese's favour (1.20 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Carrarese lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Pisa 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 50% | Pisa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.50 xG and Pisa 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.969 / defence 1.032 | Pisa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Carrarese games / 2 Pisa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Carrarese 47% | Draw 28% | Pisa 25%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Pisa 4.00. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carrarese are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Carrarese 40% | Pisa 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 47% | Draw 28% | Pisa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Carrarese 1.50 / Pisa 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.969 / def 1.032 | Pisa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Pisa xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Pisa kick off?
Carrarese vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi.
Where is Carrarese vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Pisa part of?
Carrarese vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 47% chance of winning, Pisa a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Carrarese and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Carrarese 1W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Pisa in?
Carrarese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.97x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.85x) against Carrarese's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.56
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.54
1.03
Pisa xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.03 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carrarese come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 15D 15L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 0.52 PPG from 40 outings (3W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Pisa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Carrarese's home form reads 7W 7D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 0.42 points per game from 19 outings (0W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carrarese are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.70 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Pisa in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 10W 15D 15L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Pisa have gone 3W 12D 25L in their last 40 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Pisa away?
Carrarese's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.47 PPG; Pisa away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Pisa in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Carrarese
0
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Pisa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2025, when Pisa 2-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 37%, Pisa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Carrarese) and 68% (Pisa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 42% of games; Pisa in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Carrarese's recent matches and 53% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Carrarese's matches and 68% of Pisa's.
Do Carrarese and Pisa tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Pisa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.