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Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Carrarese 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Carrarese 0-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.34 xG and Palermo 1.18 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Palermo attack 1.15 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 40% | Draw 29% | Palermo 32%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 47%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Palermo's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights