Carrarese vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 41%, yet in-form Padova provide a compelling counter-argument — this Carrarese vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Padova travel to Stadio dei Marmi to take on Carrarese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Padova stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Padova have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Padova's 1.90 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Carrarese's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Carrarese, 1 for Padova and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Padova winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Carrarese trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Padova trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 48% versus Padova 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 48% | Padova 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.27 xG and Padova 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.825 / defence 1.027 | Padova attack 0.889 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.161. Data: 42 Carrarese games / 42 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 41% | Draw 28% | Padova 31%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Padova 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Padova (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 40% | Padova 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 41% | Draw 28% | Padova 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Carrarese 1.27 / Padova 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.825 / def 1.027 | Padova attack 0.889 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Padova xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Padova kick off?
Carrarese vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Stadio dei Marmi.
Where is Carrarese vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Padova part of?
Carrarese vs Padova is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 41% chance of winning, Padova a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Carrarese and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Padova?
Record (2 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 1 | Padova 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Padova in?
Carrarese (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Padova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.82x the league average against Padova's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Padova's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.58
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.33
1.06
Padova xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
9%
11.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.06 for Padova, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carrarese come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 15D 17L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Padova sit at 1.26 PPG from 42 outings (14W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.07 PPG, Padova on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Carrarese's home form reads 7W 8D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Padova have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (7W 3D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Carrarese are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.02 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Padova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Padova in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 10W 15D 17L in their last 42 games (1.07 PPG), while Padova have gone 14W 11D 17L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Padova away?
Carrarese's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.38 PPG; Padova away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Carrarese and Padova runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Carrarese
1
Draws
1
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 0, Padova have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Padova 1-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Padova?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 33%, Padova 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Carrarese) and 43% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 48% of games; Padova in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Padova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Carrarese's recent matches and 43% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Carrarese's recent games and 43% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Padova tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Padova in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.