Carrarese vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Carrarese at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio dei Marmi plays host to Carrarese versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Carrarese have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Juve Stabia away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Carrarese against 1.30 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Carrarese 1W, Juve Stabia 1W, 2D.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 48% versus Juve Stabia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 50% | Juve Stabia 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.14 xG and Juve Stabia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.939 / defence 0.958 | Juve Stabia attack 0.947 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Carrarese games / 48 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 34% | Draw 33% | Juve Stabia 33%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Juve Stabia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Carrarese 50% | Juve Stabia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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