🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Carrarese take on Cosenza.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Carrarese and Cosenza meet at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Carrarese have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Carrarese's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 1L across 8 games at Stadio dei Marmi this term (1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.38 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 8 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Cosenza's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Carrarese's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Trading

Carrarese half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.

Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 29% versus Cosenza 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 29% | Cosenza 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.01 xG and Cosenza 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.793 / defence 0.717 | Cosenza attack 1.133 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.083. Carrarese's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Carrarese's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 17 Carrarese games / 55 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 35% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 28%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.86 | Draw 2.63 | Cosenza 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 12% | Cosenza 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights