Carrarese vs Cesena – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cesena at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carrarese vs Cesena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Carrarese and Cesena meet at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese's home record at Stadio dei Marmi: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Cesena (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cesena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cesena away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Cesena are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Carrarese 1W, Cesena 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Carrarese — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cesena — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 46% versus Cesena 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 46% | Cesena 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 0.95 xG and Cesena 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.725 / defence 1.035 | Cesena attack 0.946 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.184. Carrarese's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Carrarese games / 43 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 30% | Draw 30% | Cesena 40%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Cesena 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cesena at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cesena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 40% | Cesena 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 30% | Draw 30% | Cesena 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Carrarese 0.95 / Cesena 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.725 / def 1.035 | Cesena attack 0.946 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Cesena (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Cesena xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Cesena kick off?
Carrarese vs Cesena is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadio dei Marmi.
Where is Carrarese vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Cesena part of?
Carrarese vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 30% chance of winning, Cesena a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Carrarese and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cesena?
Record (4 meetings): Carrarese 1W | Draws 1 | Cesena 2W.
What form are Carrarese and Cesena in?
Carrarese (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Cesena (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.72x the league average against Cesena's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cesena's attack (0.95x) against Carrarese's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
30%
3.35
30%
3.34
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.11
1.16
Cesena xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.0 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.16 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carrarese come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 15D 18L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cesena sit at 1.23 PPG from 43 outings (13W 14D 16L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cesena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Carrarese against 1.23 for Cesena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Carrarese's home form reads 7W 7D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Cesena have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carrarese are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.21 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Cesena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Cesena in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Cesena have gone 13W 14D 16L in their last 43 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Cesena away?
Carrarese's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.33 PPG; Cesena away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carrarese have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cesena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carrarese
1
Draws
2
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cesena?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Cesena have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Carrarese 0-0 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Cesena?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 33%, Cesena 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Carrarese) and 48% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 48% of games; Cesena in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Cesena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Carrarese's recent matches and 57% of Cesena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Carrarese's recent games and 48% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Cesena tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Cesena in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.