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Shock result as Brescia defy the odds to beat Carrarese 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brescia beat Carrarese 1-2 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 0.95 xG and Brescia 0.91 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Brescia outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.79 / defence 0.95 against Brescia attack 0.86 / defence 0.97, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carrarese 33% | Draw 37% | Brescia 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Brescia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 35%, Brescia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carrarese's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Brescia's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.17 PPG, Brescia 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights