Carrarese 2-1 Arezzo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 9 as Carrarese welcome Arezzo to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Carrarese — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese's home record at Stadio dei Marmi: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arezzo stand at 3W 1D 4L from 8 Serie B matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.12 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arezzo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arezzo away from home this season: 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.25 exceeds their overall 1.25 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Carrarese) versus 1.25 (Arezzo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Arezzo in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Arezzo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 38% | Arezzo 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.39 xG and Arezzo 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.904 / defence 0.939 | Arezzo attack 0.886 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.313. Arezzo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Carrarese games / 8 Arezzo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 42% | Draw 30% | Arezzo 28%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Arezzo 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Carrarese 50% | Arezzo 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 42% | Draw 30% | Arezzo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Carrarese 1.39 / Arezzo 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.904 / def 0.939 | Arezzo attack 0.886 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Arezzo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Arezzo kick off?
Carrarese vs Arezzo kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Arezzo?
Carrarese 2 - 1 Arezzo.
Where is Carrarese vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Arezzo part of?
Carrarese vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 42% chance of winning, Arezzo a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Carrarese and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Arezzo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Arezzo in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Arezzo (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.12 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Carrarese's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Arezzo's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Arezzo's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.39
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.48
1.09
Arezzo xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
7%
14.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Arezzo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Arezzo expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.09 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Arezzo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Carrarese's recent record stands at 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arezzo, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 4L across 8 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Arezzo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 0.88 PPG, Arezzo on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Carrarese have managed 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arezzo's away record stands at 3W 0D 1L across 4 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.25 PPG overall record — Arezzo travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arezzo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Arezzo are on 1.00 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Arezzo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Arezzo in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Arezzo have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Arezzo away?
Arezzo's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 0.75 PPG; Arezzo away: 2.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 28 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Carrarese
0
Draws
0
Arezzo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Arezzo?
From 1 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Arezzo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Arezzo last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2026, when Carrarese 2-1 Arezzo.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Arezzo?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 50%, Arezzo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Carrarese and 75% for Arezzo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Carrarese have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Arezzo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Arezzo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Carrarese's recent matches and 50% of Arezzo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Arezzo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Carrarese's matches and 75% of Arezzo's.
Prediction vindicated as Carrarese edge out Arezzo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Arezzo 2-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.39 xG and Arezzo 1.09 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.90 / defence 0.94 against Arezzo attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 42% | Draw 30% | Arezzo 28%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 38%, Arezzo 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Arezzo's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 0.88 PPG, Arezzo 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.