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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brescia and Cesena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brescia and Cesena finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.34 xG and Cesena 1.23 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.94 / defence 1.17 against Cesena attack 1.00 / defence 1.19, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brescia 38% | Draw 30% | Cesena 32%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 39%, Cesena 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brescia's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Cesena's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brescia 1.07 PPG, Cesena 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights