Brescia 0-0 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 62%, yet in-form Carrarese provide a compelling counter-argument — this Brescia vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 17 as Brescia welcome Carrarese to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Brescia — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 6L across 8 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Carrarese — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Brescia in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 56% versus Carrarese 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 44% | Carrarese 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 2.16 xG and Carrarese 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.236 / defence 1.283 | Carrarese attack 0.717 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.096. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Brescia games / 16 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 62% | Draw 23% | Carrarese 15%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Carrarese 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Brescia (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Carrarese (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 60% | Carrarese 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 62% | Draw 23% | Carrarese 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Brescia 2.16 / Carrarese 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.236 / def 1.283 | Carrarese attack 0.717 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Brescia (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Carrarese xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Carrarese kick off?
Brescia vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Carrarese?
Brescia 0 - 0 Carrarese.
Where is Brescia vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Carrarese part of?
Brescia vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 62% chance of winning, Carrarese a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Brescia and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brescia and Carrarese in?
Brescia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Carrarese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Brescia's attack at 1.24x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.37
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Brescia xG
Total xG
3.17
1.01
Carrarese xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
12%
8.66
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
2%
57.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Brescia and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Brescia and 1.01 for Carrarese, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Carrarese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Brescia's recent record stands at 5W 4D 7L from 16 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 7L across 16 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.19 PPG, Carrarese on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carrarese's away record stands at 1W 1D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Brescia are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.88 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Carrarese away?
Brescia's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.38 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Brescia or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Carrarese in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Brescia
1
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Brescia have won 1, Carrarese have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Carrarese 1-2 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Carrarese?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 62%, Carrarese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Brescia) and 50% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Brescia's games and 50% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Brescia's recent games and 50% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Carrarese tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brescia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia and Carrarese finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 2.16 xG and Carrarese 1.01 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brescia fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Carrarese landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.24 / defence 1.28 against Carrarese attack 0.72 / defence 1.39, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 62% | Draw 23% | Carrarese 15%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 44%, Carrarese 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Carrarese's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.19 PPG, Carrarese 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.