Benevento vs Virtus Entella – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Virtus Entella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benevento host Virtus Entella at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benevento have posted 2W 4D 1L at Stadio Ciro Vigorito — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Virtus Entella stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Benevento carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Benevento in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 54% versus Virtus Entella 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 36% | Virtus Entella 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.23 xG and Virtus Entella 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.982 / defence 1.072 | Virtus Entella attack 0.910 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.203. Data: 11 Benevento games / 48 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 32% | Virtus Entella 33%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Virtus Entella 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 86% | Virtus Entella 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 32% | Virtus Entella 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Benevento 1.23 / Virtus Entella 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.982 / def 1.072 | Virtus Entella attack 0.910 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Benevento (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Virtus Entella xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Benevento vs Virtus Entella is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Virtus Entella part of?
Benevento vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 35% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Benevento and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Virtus Entella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Virtus Entella in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Virtus Entella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Benevento's attack at 0.98x the league average against Virtus Entella's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
35%
2.83
32%
3.13
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.40
1.17
Virtus Entella xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
10%
10.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Benevento and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Benevento and 1.17 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benevento come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 4D 3L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Virtus Entella — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Benevento's home form reads 2W 3D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Virtus Entella have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.91 PPG overall record — Virtus Entella travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Virtus Entella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Virtus Entella away?
Benevento's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.80 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 1.40 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 80%, Virtus Entella 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Benevento) and 40% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Virtus Entella in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Virtus Entella?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Benevento's games and 40% of Virtus Entella's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Benevento's recent games and 40% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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