Benevento vs Sampdoria – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sampdoria make the trip to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to face Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's home record at Stadio Ciro Vigorito: 2W 3D 1L from 6 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sampdoria (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Benevento's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (10 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (10 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 50% and Sampdoria 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 40% | Sampdoria 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.68 xG and Sampdoria 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.983 / defence 1.061 | Sampdoria attack 0.770 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Benevento games / 48 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 51% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 21%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Sampdoria 4.76. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 83% | Sampdoria 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 51% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Benevento 1.68 / Sampdoria 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.983 / def 1.061 | Sampdoria attack 0.770 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Benevento (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Sampdoria xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Sampdoria kick off?
Benevento vs Sampdoria is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Sampdoria part of?
Benevento vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 51% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Benevento and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Sampdoria in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Benevento's attack at 0.98x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.77x) against Benevento's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.61
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.68
1.01
Sampdoria xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
4%
25.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Benevento and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Benevento and 1.01 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benevento come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 3D 3L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 0.80 PPG from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Benevento's home form reads 2W 3D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 0.33 points per game from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Sampdoria away?
Benevento's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.50 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Benevento or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 10%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Benevento, 67% for Sampdoria — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Benevento) and 33% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Benevento's games and 67% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Benevento's recent games and 33% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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