Benevento vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pisa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 18 as Benevento welcome Pisa to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this season: 2W 3D 1L from 6 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Benevento) versus 1.50 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Benevento, 3 for Pisa and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Pisa in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 50% versus Pisa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 40% | Pisa 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.25 xG and Pisa 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.983 / defence 1.060 | Pisa attack 1.056 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 10 Benevento games / 10 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 32% | Draw 30% | Pisa 38%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Pisa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 83% | Pisa 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 32% | Draw 30% | Pisa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Benevento 1.25 / Pisa 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.983 / def 1.060 | Pisa attack 1.056 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Pisa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Pisa xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Pisa kick off?
Benevento vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Pisa part of?
Benevento vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 32% chance of winning, Pisa a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Benevento and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Pisa?
Record (6 meetings): Benevento 2W | Draws 1 | Pisa 3W.
What form are Benevento and Pisa in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benevento's attack rating (0.98) and Pisa's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
32%
3.14
30%
3.34
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.63
1.38
Pisa xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
8%
12.48
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Benevento and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Benevento and 1.38 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 4W 3D 3L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa's form line: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.50 PPG, Pisa on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benevento have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.80 scored and 1.50 conceded. Pisa's attacking output running into Benevento's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Pisa in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Pisa have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Pisa away?
Benevento's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.80 PPG; Pisa away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Benevento or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Pisa in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Benevento won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benevento's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Benevento
1
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Pisa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Pisa 2-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 80%, Pisa 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Benevento) and 60% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Benevento's games and 40% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Benevento's recent games and 60% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Pisa tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pisa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.