Benevento vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 18 as Benevento welcome Pisa to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Benevento) versus 0.60 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Benevento, 3 for Pisa and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Pisa in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 75% and Pisa 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 50% | Pisa 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.32 xG and Pisa 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.015 / defence 1.143 | Pisa attack 1.122 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.180. Data: 4 Benevento games / 4 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 33% | Draw 25% | Pisa 42%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Pisa 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 100% | Pisa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 33% | Draw 25% | Pisa 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Benevento 1.32 / Pisa 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.015 / def 1.143 | Pisa attack 1.122 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Pisa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Pisa xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Pisa kick off?
Benevento vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Pisa part of?
Benevento vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 33% chance of winning, Pisa a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Benevento and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Pisa?
Record (6 meetings): Benevento 2W | Draws 1 | Pisa 3W.
What form are Benevento and Pisa in?
Benevento (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-L-W. Pisa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benevento's attack rating (1.01) and Pisa's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
33%
3.01
25%
4.00
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.84
1.51
Pisa xG
3.01
33%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
7%
13.66
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Benevento and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Benevento and 1.51 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 2L record — L-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa's form line: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Benevento.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Pisa in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Pisa have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Benevento won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benevento's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Benevento
1
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Pisa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Pisa 2-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 75%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Benevento and 75% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Benevento's games and 50% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Benevento's matches and 75% of Pisa's.
Do Benevento and Pisa tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Pisa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.