Benevento vs Palermo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.40 PPG across 5 Serie B outings this season: 2W 1D 2L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benevento have posted 1W 1D 1L at Stadio Ciro Vigorito — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Palermo (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palermo are 0.60 PPG clear of Benevento in recent Serie B fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Benevento 0W, Palermo 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Palermo — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 60% and Palermo 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 40% | Palermo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.39 xG and Palermo 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.010 / defence 1.110 | Palermo attack 1.070 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.184. Data: 5 Benevento games / 43 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 37% | Draw 25% | Palermo 38%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Palermo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 100% | Palermo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 37% | Draw 25% | Palermo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Benevento 1.39 / Palermo 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.010 / def 1.110 | Palermo attack 1.070 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Palermo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Palermo xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Palermo kick off?
Benevento vs Palermo is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Palermo part of?
Benevento vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 37% chance of winning, Palermo a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Benevento and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Palermo?
Record (2 meetings): Benevento 0W | Draws 1 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Benevento and Palermo in?
Benevento (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Benevento's attack rating (1.01) and Palermo's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.07x) against Benevento's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
37%
2.71
25%
3.93
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.79
1.41
Palermo xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.06
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Benevento and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Benevento and 1.41 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benevento come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 1D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 2.60 PPG from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Benevento — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Palermo's attacking output running into Benevento's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Palermo in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Palermo in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Palermo have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 (2.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Benevento
1
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 0, Palermo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Palermo 1-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Benevento, 80% for Palermo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Benevento) and 60% (Palermo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Benevento's games and 80% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Benevento's recent games and 60% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Palermo tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Palermo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.