Benevento vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Padova in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Benevento (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento have gone 2W 3D 1L this season (6 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Padova have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Benevento, 1.40 for Padova — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Padova — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 50% versus Padova 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 40% | Padova 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.18 xG and Padova 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.983 / defence 1.060 | Padova attack 0.868 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 10 Benevento games / 48 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 32% | Padova 33%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Padova 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Benevento 83% | Padova 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 35% | Draw 32% | Padova 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Benevento 1.18 / Padova 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.983 / def 1.060 | Padova attack 0.868 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Benevento (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Padova xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Padova kick off?
Benevento vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Padova part of?
Benevento vs Padova is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 35% chance of winning, Padova a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Benevento and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Padova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Padova in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Padova (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Benevento's attack rating (0.98) and Padova's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Padova's attack (0.87x) against Benevento's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
35%
2.85
32%
3.11
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.32
1.13
Padova xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
10%
9.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Benevento and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Benevento and 1.13 for Padova, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benevento come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 3D 3L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Padova sit at 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Benevento against 1.40 for Padova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Benevento's home form reads 2W 3D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Padova have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.00 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Padova in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Padova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Padova in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Padova have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Padova away?
Benevento's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.80 PPG; Padova away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Benevento or Padova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Padova in 40%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Benevento, 60% for Padova — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Benevento) and 40% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Padova in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Padova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Benevento's games and 60% of Padova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Benevento's recent games and 40% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Padova tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Padova in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.