Benevento 2-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benevento host Modena at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Benevento — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benevento have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Ciro Vigorito — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Modena — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Benevento, 0 for Modena and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Benevento trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Modena trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 50% versus Modena 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 31% | Modena 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.51 xG and Modena 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.838 / defence 1.260 | Modena attack 0.865 / defence 1.545. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.022. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.545 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Benevento games / 36 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 45% | Draw 29% | Modena 26%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Modena 3.85. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Modena (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 50% | Modena 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 45% | Draw 29% | Modena 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Benevento 1.51 / Modena 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.838 / def 1.260 | Modena attack 0.865 / def 1.545 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Benevento (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Modena xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Modena kick off?
Benevento vs Modena kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Modena?
Benevento 2 - 1 Modena.
Where is Benevento vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Modena part of?
Benevento vs Modena is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 45% chance of winning, Modena a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Benevento and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 0W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W.
What form are Benevento and Modena in?
Benevento (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Modena (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Benevento's attack at 0.84x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.43
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.62
1.11
Modena xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
6%
17.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Benevento and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Benevento and 1.11 for Modena, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Benevento have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 6W 14D 16L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Modena's form line: 12W 9D 15L from 36 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 0.89 PPG, Modena on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Benevento have posted 0.83 PPG from 18 outings (3W 6D 9L).
On the road, Modena have gone 6W 1D 11L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.22 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Modena in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 6W 14D 16L in their last 36 games (0.89 PPG), while Modena have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 0.83 PPG; Modena away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benevento and Modena runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benevento's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Benevento
1
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Modena?
From 3 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Modena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Benevento 1-2 Modena.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 50%, Modena 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Benevento) and 61% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Benevento have failed to score in 39% of games; Modena in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Benevento's recent matches and 56% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Benevento's recent games and 61% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Modena tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Modena in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benevento edge out Modena 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Modena 2-1 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.51 xG and Modena 1.11 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.84 / defence 1.26 against Modena attack 0.86 / defence 1.54, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 45% | Draw 29% | Modena 26%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 31%, Modena 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 0.89 PPG, Modena 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.