Benevento vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 38%, yet in-form Mantova provide a compelling counter-argument — this Benevento vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Mantova travel to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to take on Benevento. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 2W 1D 2L from 5 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mantova are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Benevento trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Mantova trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 60% and Mantova 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 40% | Mantova 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.40 xG and Mantova 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.014 / defence 1.107 | Mantova attack 1.039 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.185. Data: 5 Benevento games / 43 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 38% | Draw 26% | Mantova 36%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Mantova 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mantova (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 100% | Mantova 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 38% | Draw 26% | Mantova 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Benevento 1.40 / Mantova 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.014 / def 1.107 | Mantova attack 1.039 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Benevento (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Mantova xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Mantova kick off?
Benevento vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Mantova part of?
Benevento vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 38% chance of winning, Mantova a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Benevento and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Mantova in?
Benevento (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Mantova (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Benevento's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.89
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.76
1.36
Mantova xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Benevento and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Benevento and 1.36 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benevento come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 1D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mantova carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Benevento — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Mantova's attacking output running into Benevento's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Mantova in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Mantova in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Mantova have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 (2.20 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benevento at 60%, Mantova at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Benevento) and 60% (Mantova).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Benevento's games and 80% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Benevento's recent games and 60% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Mantova tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Mantova in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.