Benevento vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Mantova travel to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to take on Benevento. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 1L across 6 games at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Benevento 1.50 PPG, Mantova 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benevento register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant matches, Mantova in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Benevento trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Mantova trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 50% versus Mantova 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 40% | Mantova 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.07 xG and Mantova 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.983 / defence 1.061 | Mantova attack 1.062 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 10 Benevento games / 48 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 27% | Draw 31% | Mantova 42%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Mantova 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 83% | Mantova 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 27% | Draw 31% | Mantova 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Benevento 1.07 / Mantova 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.983 / def 1.061 | Mantova attack 1.062 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Mantova (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Mantova xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Mantova kick off?
Benevento vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Mantova part of?
Benevento vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 27% chance of winning, Mantova a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Benevento and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Mantova in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Mantova (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Benevento's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
27%
3.71
31%
3.26
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.46
1.39
Mantova xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
7%
14.87
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Benevento and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Benevento and 1.39 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benevento come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 3D 3L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 1.80 PPG from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.50 PPG, Mantova on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Benevento's home form reads 2W 3D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Mantova have taken 2.20 points per game from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.80 PPG overall record — Mantova travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.50 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mantova in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Mantova in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Mantova have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Mantova away?
Mantova's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.80 PPG; Mantova away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Benevento or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Mantova in 20%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benevento at 80%, Mantova at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Benevento) and 40% (Mantova).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Benevento's games and 80% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Benevento's recent games and 40% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Mantova tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Mantova in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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