Benevento vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 28 as Benevento welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento's home record at Stadio Ciro Vigorito: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Serie B appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Juve Stabia have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Benevento) versus 1.00 (Juve Stabia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Benevento trading profile (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Juve Stabia trading profile (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 60% and Juve Stabia 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 40% | Juve Stabia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.24 xG and Juve Stabia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.013 / defence 1.108 | Juve Stabia attack 0.926 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.185. Data: 5 Benevento games / 43 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 37% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 36%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Juve Stabia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 100% | Juve Stabia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 37% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Benevento 1.24 / Juve Stabia 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.013 / def 1.108 | Juve Stabia attack 0.926 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Benevento (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Juve Stabia xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Benevento vs Juve Stabia is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Juve Stabia part of?
Benevento vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 37% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Benevento and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Juve Stabia in?
Benevento (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Benevento's attack at 1.01x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.63
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.45
1.22
Juve Stabia xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Benevento and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Benevento and 1.22 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benevento come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 1D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.40 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Benevento's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Juve Stabia have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Juve Stabia in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Juve Stabia away?
Benevento's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.33 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.33 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benevento at 100%, Juve Stabia at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Benevento) and 33% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Benevento's games and 67% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Benevento's recent games and 33% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.