Benevento 1-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bari at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bari make the trip to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to face Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Benevento (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's home record at Stadio Ciro Vigorito: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Bari have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's away record: 4W 1D 1L from 6 road trips in Serie B this season (2.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bari are 0.80 PPG clear of Benevento in recent Serie B fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 46% versus Bari 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 27% | Bari 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.01 xG and Bari 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.860 / defence 1.057 | Bari attack 0.977 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.117. Data: 49 Benevento games / 11 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 31% | Draw 31% | Bari 38%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Bari 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 50% | Bari 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 31% | Draw 31% | Bari 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Benevento 1.01 / Bari 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.860 / def 1.057 | Bari attack 0.977 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Bari (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Bari xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Bari kick off?
Benevento vs Bari kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Bari?
Benevento 1 - 1 Bari.
Where is Benevento vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Bari part of?
Benevento vs Bari is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 31% chance of winning, Bari a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Benevento and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Bari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Bari in?
Benevento (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Bari (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Benevento's attack at 0.86x the league average against Bari's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.98x) against Benevento's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
31%
3.24
31%
3.23
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.16
1.15
Bari xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Benevento and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Benevento and 1.15 for Bari, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Benevento have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 2W 4D 5L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari's form line: 5W 4D 2L from 11 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bari are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Benevento.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Benevento have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Bari have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.73 PPG overall record — Bari travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.64 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Bari in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Bari have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 0.83 PPG; Bari away: 2.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Benevento
1
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Bari?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 0, Bari have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Bari 2-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bari see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 50%, Bari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Benevento) and 50% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Bari in 33%; Benevento have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Benevento's recent matches and 50% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Benevento's recent games and 50% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Benevento and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 12, as Benevento and Bari drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.01 xG and Bari 1.15 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Bari attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 31% | Draw 31% | Bari 38%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 27%, Bari 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.