Benevento vs Arezzo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benevento and Arezzo meet at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Serie B outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: L D L W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento's home record at Stadio Ciro Vigorito: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Serie B appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Arezzo's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arezzo's away record: 2W 0D 1L from 3 road trips in Serie B this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Arezzo are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Arezzo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 75% and Arezzo 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 50% | Arezzo 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.78 xG and Arezzo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.015 / defence 1.148 | Arezzo attack 0.846 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.161. Arezzo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Benevento games / 4 Arezzo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 53% | Draw 23% | Arezzo 24%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Arezzo 4.17. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Arezzo (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 100% | Arezzo 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 53% | Draw 23% | Arezzo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Benevento 1.78 / Arezzo 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.015 / def 1.148 | Arezzo attack 0.846 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Benevento (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Arezzo xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Arezzo kick off?
Benevento vs Arezzo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Arezzo part of?
Benevento vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 53% chance of winning, Arezzo a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Benevento and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Arezzo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Arezzo in?
Benevento (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-L-W. Arezzo (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.25 | L5 W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Benevento's attack at 1.01x the league average against Arezzo's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arezzo's attack (0.85x) against Benevento's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.28
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.90
1.13
Arezzo xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
4%
24.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Arezzo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Benevento and Arezzo expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Benevento and 1.13 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Arezzo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benevento's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arezzo, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 2L across 4 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arezzo by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Benevento heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arezzo's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.50 PPG overall record — Arezzo travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arezzo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Arezzo are on 1.25 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Arezzo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Arezzo in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Arezzo have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Arezzo away?
Arezzo's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.33 PPG; Arezzo away: 2.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Benevento, 33% for Arezzo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Benevento and 67% for Arezzo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arezzo in 33%; Arezzo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Arezzo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Arezzo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Benevento's games and 33% of Arezzo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Arezzo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Benevento's matches and 67% of Arezzo's.
Do Benevento and Arezzo tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Arezzo in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.