Benevento vs Arezzo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benevento and Arezzo meet at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's home record at Stadio Ciro Vigorito: 2W 3D 1L from 6 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Arezzo's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arezzo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arezzo's away record: 3W 0D 2L from 5 road trips in Serie B this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Benevento, 1.10 for Arezzo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Benevento have seen both teams score in 83% of their games, Arezzo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Benevento 1W, Arezzo 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2026, ended 3–0 with Benevento winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Arezzo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 50% versus Arezzo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 40% | Arezzo 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.57 xG and Arezzo 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.983 / defence 1.061 | Arezzo attack 0.916 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Arezzo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Benevento games / 10 Arezzo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 44% | Draw 28% | Arezzo 27%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Arezzo 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 83% | Arezzo 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 44% | Draw 28% | Arezzo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Benevento 1.57 / Arezzo 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.983 / def 1.061 | Arezzo attack 0.916 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Benevento (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Arezzo xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Arezzo kick off?
Benevento vs Arezzo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Arezzo part of?
Benevento vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 44% chance of winning, Arezzo a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Benevento and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Arezzo?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 0 | Arezzo 0W.
What form are Benevento and Arezzo in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Arezzo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Benevento's attack at 0.98x the league average against Arezzo's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arezzo's attack (0.92x) against Benevento's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.51
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.77
1.20
Arezzo xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
6%
17.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Arezzo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Benevento and Arezzo expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Benevento and 1.20 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Arezzo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benevento's recent record stands at 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arezzo, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 5L across 10 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Arezzo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Benevento against 1.10 for Arezzo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arezzo's away record stands at 3W 0D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.10 PPG overall record — Arezzo travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Arezzo are on 0.90 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Arezzo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Arezzo in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Arezzo have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Arezzo away?
Benevento's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.80 PPG; Arezzo away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Benevento or Arezzo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Arezzo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Benevento
0
Draws
0
Arezzo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Arezzo?
From 1 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Arezzo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Arezzo last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Arezzo 0-3 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Arezzo?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Benevento, 60% for Arezzo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Benevento and 80% for Arezzo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Arezzo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Arezzo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Benevento's games and 60% of Arezzo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Arezzo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Benevento's matches and 80% of Arezzo's.
Do Benevento and Arezzo tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Arezzo in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.