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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bari and Pescara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bari and Pescara finished level at 1-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 2.32 xG and Pescara 1.07 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bari fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Pescara attack 0.98 / defence 1.61, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 64% | Draw 21% | Pescara 15%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 50%, Pescara 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Pescara's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.00 PPG, Pescara 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pescara (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights