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Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Padova 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bari beat Padova 2-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.21 xG and Padova 0.84 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Padova attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 41% | Draw 38% | Padova 22%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 50%, Padova 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Padova's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Padova arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Bari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bari scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Padova shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights