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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bari cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Modena.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bari beat Modena 3-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 0.89 xG and Modena 1.37 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Modena attack 1.01 / defence 0.77, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bari 23% | Draw 31% | Modena 46%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Bari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 42%, Modena 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bari's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Modena's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bari 1.14 PPG, Modena 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights