🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Bari at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 9 as Bari welcome Mantova to Stadio San Nicola. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 16:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bari's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stadio San Nicola this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio San Nicola than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Mantova away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Bari) versus 0.90 (Mantova). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bari register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Mantova in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bari, 0 for Mantova and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Bari winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Bari trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).

Mantova trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 59% versus Mantova 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 39% | Mantova 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.34 xG and Mantova 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.007 / defence 0.995 | Mantova attack 0.741 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.139. Data: 46 Bari games / 46 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bari 45% | Draw 36% | Mantova 20%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.22 | Draw 2.78 | Mantova 5.00. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bari 80% | Mantova 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights