Bari 1-3 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Juve Stabia travel to Stadio Comunale San Nicola to take on Bari. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bari haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bari's home record at Stadio Comunale San Nicola: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.50 xG and Juve Stabia 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.964 / defence 0.957 | Juve Stabia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.141. Data: 38 Bari games / 0 Juve Stabia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bari 49% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 22%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Juve Stabia 4.55. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 49% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Bari 1.50 / Juve Stabia 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.964 / def 0.957 | Juve Stabia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Bari (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Juve Stabia xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Bari vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Juve Stabia?
Bari 1 - 3 Juve Stabia.
Where is Bari vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Juve Stabia part of?
Bari vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 49% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bari and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bari and Juve Stabia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Bari (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.96) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.51
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Bari xG
Total xG
2.43
0.93
Juve Stabia xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
20%
5.13
5%
20.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bari and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Bari and 0.93 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Pre-Season
Juve Stabia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bari's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Bari
1
Draws
3
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Bari have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Bari 0-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Juve Stabia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Bari 1-3 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.50 xG and Juve Stabia 0.93 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Juve Stabia outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Juve Stabia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 49% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 22%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Juve Stabia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.